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JIN DING/CHINA DAILY
The sharp increase in "defense" spending proposed by Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te is reshaping the island's economy and society, and pushing cross-Strait relations into a vicious cycle, according to analysts.
From raising the annual "defense" budget to more than 3 percent of GDP and proposing a special $40 billion "defense" fund, to purchasing an $11.1 billion arms package from the United States, the Lai authorities have steadily expanded spending in so-called defense capabilities.
While these measures may appear, so far, as mere figures on paper, experts said their real impact on Taiwan could be far-reaching, spanning a distorted public spending structure, intensified political confrontation and growing social anxiety, some of which are already emerging.
According to Taiwan's general budget draft released in August last year, a record NT$949.5 billion ($30 billion) was allocated to "defense" this year, accounting for about 31 percent of total government spending.
With a year-on-year increase of NT$302.5 billion, "defense" expenditure is expected to reach 3.32 percent of the island's GDP. Under the so-called NATO model adopted by the Lai authorities, the growth rate of military spending has outpaced overall economic growth.
In addition, Lai proposed a special "defense" budget of $40 billion to be distributed over eight years in an article published in The Washington Post. The fund, Lai said, is designated for US arms purchases and the development of the so-called T-Dome air defense system.
While the general budget remains pending, the special fund has been blocked multiple times by Taiwan's legislature since it was approved by the executive branch in November, with the most recent setback on Tuesday.
Experts said that Lai's long-touted "determination" to strengthen "defense" capabilities, when translated into concrete financial commitments through a NATO-level budget and supplementary spending, could reduce fiscal flexibility and produce spillover effects across society.
Zhu Guilan, an assistant professor at Tsinghua University's Institute of Taiwan Studies, said that keeping military spending at around 3 percent of GDP already consumes a sizable share of public resources, inevitably crowding out expenditures in other areas such as social welfare and education.
Media analyses showed that financial allocations on the island for education, science and culture, as well as economic development, are expected to decline this year.
Such a high level of military spending could generate sustained fiscal pressure, particularly when demand for public funds would surge during emergencies such as economic downturns or natural disasters, Zhu said.
She added that with pension obligations and personnel costs already highly rigid, multi-year arms procurement programs would further erode the government's policy flexibility.
Based on current GDP levels, Lai's stated goal of raising "defense" spending to more than 5 percent of GDP by 2030 would require an additional NT$400 billion annually. The total amount is nearly equivalent to the combined budgets for social welfare and education.
Chang Li-chi, a Taiwan scholar at Huaqiao University in Xiamen, Fujian province, said, "The Democratic Progressive Party authorities' move to increase 'defense' spending is sacrificing the majority's interests for their own sake."
Real intention
Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the Chinese Kuomintang, pointed out that the DPP has raised "defense" spending beyond the mandated debt ceiling, criticizing Lai for failing to report the move to the public and the legislature, and for bypassing professional deliberation.
Although Lai made the decision without consulting opposition parties or the public, it is fully consistent with his repeated pledge to demonstrate Taiwan's "defense commitment", experts noted.
Several senior officials in the US have said that Taiwan should increase its "defense" spending to 10 percent of its GDP.
On Dec 17, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced eight arms sale packages to Taiwan worth $11.1 billion, including rocket artillery systems, anti-tank missiles, self-propelled howitzers and a tactical mission network. The deal, the largest-ever arms sale between the US and Taiwan since 1979, following another arms sale in November, drew strong condemnation from the Chinese mainland.
Under Donald Trump's second term, Washington has approved a total of $11.48 billion in arms sales to the island.
However, statistics showed that as of October last year, $21.5 billion worth of previously approved US arms sales to Taiwan had yet to be delivered. Media reports indicated that delivery of the newly approved weapons could take years due to US production constraints.
Fu Zhengnan, a researcher at the People's Liberation Army's Academy of Military Science, said that the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, included in the arms sale package to Taiwan, is constrained by the island's geography and remains vulnerable to attacks.
"Beyond enhancing so-called combat capabilities, more importantly, these purchases are meant to signal to the US administration and Congress that Taiwan is 'sharing the security burden' and is a 'reliable partner'," Zhu said.
Scholar Chang described the purchase as paying "protection fees" to Washington, saying that the DPP is dragging the Taiwan people "onto the war chariot".
Spread across the island's population of 23 million, last year's arms purchases from the US amounted to roughly $500 per person.
The opportunity cost of "defense" spending should not be overlooked, Zhu said, pointing out that every additional dollar allocated to the military meant a corresponding reduction in funds available for employment-intensive sectors with stronger long-term growth potential, such as education, elderly care, scientific research and energy transition.
While Lai has been hyping up "security threats" to justify these moves, KMT chairwoman Cheng said that it is the DPP's misguided cross-Strait policies that lie at the root of Taiwan's escalating military risks.
She emphasized that lasting peace across the Taiwan Strait can only be maintained by adhering to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus.
Chen Binhua, spokesman for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, condemned the DPP for selling out Taiwan and pandering to the US without limits. "The Lai authorities are sacrificing economic development and public welfare through separatist activities," he said.
The mainland has repeatedly warned that the DPP's provocative "independence" moves, including colluding with foreign forces and militarizing the island, are undermining cross-Strait relations and the stability in the Taiwan Strait. Lai has been labeled a "peace disruptor", "crisis creator" and "war instigator".
Emerging split society
Although 2026 has already begun, Taiwan's general budget for the year has yet to be reviewed due to ongoing disputes between the DPP and opposition parties, which hold a majority in the legislature.
The KMT and the Taiwan People's Party have argued that the DPP has failed to compile budgets to increase military pay and pensions for retired police officers and firefighters that were approved by the opposition last year.
The KMT has criticized the Lai authorities for prioritizing payments to arms dealers over the welfare of service members, questioning how such an approach could be called strengthening "defense".
The reallocation of funds to accommodate rising "defense" spending has widened political rifts and deepened divisions in public priorities and perceptions, said Zhu from the Institute of Taiwan Studies.
The budget impasse has also prevented the government from disbursing public funds, a situation observers said could harm both the economy and public welfare.
Zhu added that high military spending, coupled with constant threat-oriented rhetoric, can fuel anxiety and anti-war sentiment on the island, which may undermine consumer confidence and private investment.
"The DPP's misguided policies are taking a toll on Taiwan's economy and discouraging investment," Taiwan scholar Chang said.
Zhu added, "The public tends to associate the buildup of weapons with a more dangerous environment, which fosters security anxiety instead of a sense of safety."
Alongside increased military spending, the DPP authorities have also organized drills and issued a so-called civil defense handbook on the island, urging residents to prepare for potential conflicts.
Recent polls have shown that over 50 percent of Taiwan people believe a war could break out within five years, while over 60 percent say they do not want themselves or family members to participate in combat.
"When security threats are repeatedly emphasized, conflict can shift from a remote possibility to a constant presence looming over society," Zhu said. "As society becomes accustomed to operating under persistent tension and anxiety, social trust and public rationality may be quietly eroded."
According to statistics from the budget center of Taiwan's legislature, between 2021 and 2024, more than 52,000 volunteer soldiers were recruited, but 12,884 left before completing the minimum service requirement.
Despite a record-high "defense" budget, the total number of volunteer officers and soldiers in Taiwan is projected to fall to 153,965 this year, which is 6,784 fewer than last year and 12,770 fewer than in 2024.
Spokesman Chen said more people in Taiwan have come to realize that the Lai authorities' stubborn separatist stance will only bring instability and conflict to the island, and that tolerating or supporting it would put themselves and their families at risk of becoming "cannon fodder".
深圳一公司高管违法开除员工？深圳市人社局通报 中新网1月12日电 深圳市人力资源和社会保障局微信公众号1月11日晚发布通报称，1月10日，有关“深圳一公司男高管违法开除男员工”的信息在网络平台流传，引发网民关注。 25省份出台预制菜发展标准 上下游行业等待“国标”出台 预制菜行业进入发展的快车道。 从2020年开始，预制菜概念逐渐走入大众视野，市场规模不断扩大。截至2022年，预制菜市场规模已突破4000亿元。到了2023年，政 刚被罚款3.55亿美元后 特朗普“带货”球鞋 中新网2月19日电 据美联社消息，当地时间17日，美国前总统特朗普在一场商业活动中带货了一双“特朗普”牌的金色球鞋，引发热议。 据报道，特朗普当天在费城会议中心举行 中国发展网讯 据中国野生动物保护协会微信公众号消息，为持续推进大熊猫保护事业，中国野生动物保护协会已分别与西班牙马德里动物园和美国圣迭戈动物园就新一轮大熊猫国际保护合作事宜达成一致并签署协 自然资源部：22个省级国土空间规划已获批准实施 中新社北京2月22日电 (记者 庞无忌)中国正加速推进各级国土空间规划编制实施。 中国自然资源部22日透露，截至目前，所有省级和新疆生产建设兵团国土空间规划均已 激活公共数据要素潜能 日前，国家数据局等部门发布《“数据要素×”三年行动计划(2024―2026年)》，进一步明确和细化了激活数据要素潜能的具体方式和实践场景，扩展数据要素的高质量供给。将通过多领域、多行业的试 。本文链接：Lai's arms spending sending Taiwan to edge Public funds paid to US weapon makers better spent on sochttp://www.sushuapos.com/show-5-86790-0.html
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